CONTACT US
Home > Browse by topic > Probability

Probability Expert Witnesses

Probability disputes in complex commercial litigation typically arise when a case requires rigorous statistical modeling to establish or rebut claims about the likelihood of an event, pattern, or outcome, questions common to antitrust, discrimination, and forensic data analysis matters. These disputes surface in employment discrimination litigation requiring statistical analysis of hiring or pay disparities, in antitrust and securities matters requiring probabilistic modeling of market behavior or damages, and in disputes over whether patterns in software, data, or financial transactions are more likely attributable to a systematic cause than to random chance. Because probability models depend on assumptions about underlying distributions and data quality that can be constructed in different defensible ways, reasonable statisticians applying accepted methods to the same data can reach different conclusions. The central issue is typically whether the probability model and underlying data reliably support the likelihood or pattern claim it is being used to prove.

A probability expert helps attorneys evaluate that question by constructing or critiquing probabilistic and statistical models that assess whether an observed pattern is more consistent with a systematic cause or with chance. That might mean calculating the statistical significance of a hiring or pay disparity in a discrimination case, modeling the probability that patterns in transactional or software data reflect a specific process rather than randomness, or evaluating whether a damages or risk model's underlying probability assumptions are scientifically sound. These findings support positions on liability, causation, and damages, and often anticipate the modeling choices an opposing expert is likely to challenge.

Probability cases benefit from experts whose specific applied background, whether biostatistics, risk analysis, or applied mathematics, matches the precise statistical question at issue rather than probability theory in general terms. Round Table Group's probability network includes professionals from applied mathematics, statistics, and data analysis who have published extensively and testified for both plaintiffs and defense on questions ranging from risk analysis to pattern detection in data. With more than 75,000 expert searches completed for litigators, we help attorneys match a case's specific probability issue to an expert whose modeling will withstand scrutiny under cross-examination. Let us help you find the right probability expert for your case by calling us at (202) 908-4500.

Kinds of Cases We Work On

Round Table Group helps our clients find a wide variety of Probability expert witnesses for cases like:

01

Casino RNG Fairness Dispute Over Payout Frequencies.

A casino operator sued a slot machine manufacturer after an internal audit found a game's random number generator produced payout frequencies that deviated significantly from the certified probability distribution, exposing the casino to regulatory penalties. We identified experts with experience in random number generator testing, gaming probability and payout modeling, and statistical hypothesis testing. The expert's statistical analysis of the game's output confirmed the deviation from the certified distribution, anchoring liability for a substantial recovery.
02

Catastrophe Bond Trigger Dispute Over a Windstorm Payout.

A catastrophe bond issuer sued its modeling agent after a severe windstorm event failed to trigger the bond's payout despite causing losses the issuer believed should have satisfied the parametric trigger, disputing the agent's probability modeling of the triggering index. We identified experts with experience in catastrophe risk modeling, parametric insurance trigger design, and probabilistic loss modeling methodology. The expert's independent model reconstruction found the trigger threshold had been miscalibrated, supporting a substantial settlement.
03

Reinsurance PML Modeling Dispute Over a Catastrophe Claim.

A primary insurer sued its reinsurer after the reinsurer relied on a probable maximum loss model to dispute a large catastrophe claim recoverable, alleging the model's underlying probability assumptions understated the storm's likely severity given known regional risk factors. We identified experts with experience in catastrophe probability modeling, reinsurance treaty analysis, and probable maximum loss methodology. The expert's model review found the assumptions departed from accepted industry practice, supporting a favorable arbitration award.
04

Default Probability Model Dispute Over Loan Underwriting.

A bank sued its credit risk modeling vendor after a portfolio of commercial loans underwritten using the vendor's default probability model experienced default rates well above what the model predicted, contributing to significant portfolio losses. We identified experts with experience in credit risk modeling, default probability estimation methodology, and statistical model validation. The expert's model validation review found the underlying probability assumptions were not supported by the historical data used to build the model, anchoring damages for a recovery of over $50 million.
05

Warranty Reserve Modeling Dispute Over Failure Rates.

A manufacturer sued its extended warranty program administrator after the administrator's failure rate probability model significantly underestimated claim volumes, leaving the manufacturer's warranty reserve fund substantially underfunded relative to actual claims experience. We identified experts with experience in warranty claims probability modeling, product failure rate estimation, and actuarial reserve methodology. The expert's model reconstruction confirmed the failure rate assumptions were understated relative to the manufacturer's own field data, supporting a substantial settlement.
06

Lottery Odds Disclosure Dispute Over Miscalculated Prizes.

A state lottery agency sued its instant-ticket game vendor after discovering the vendor's published odds of winning for a major game had been miscalculated, exposing the agency to significant reputational and regulatory risk once the discrepancy became public. We identified experts with experience in lottery game probability design, combinatorial odds calculation, and gaming statistical disclosure standards. The expert's recalculation of the game's prize structure confirmed the published odds were incorrect, anchoring damages for a substantial recovery.
07

Weather Derivative Trigger Dispute Over Index Calibration.

An energy company sued the index provider for a weather derivative contract after a payout dispute arose over whether the underlying temperature index probability model had been properly calibrated to the contracted historical baseline period. We identified experts with experience in weather derivative pricing, meteorological probability modeling, and index-based financial instrument design. The expert's baseline recalibration analysis found the index provider's model used an inconsistent historical dataset, supporting a substantial settlement.
08

Statistical Sampling Audit Dispute Over Extrapolation Methodology.

A healthcare payer sued a provider network to recover overpayments identified through a statistical sampling audit, while the provider network disputed the payer's sample size and extrapolation methodology as statistically unreliable. We identified experts with experience in statistical sampling design, extrapolation methodology, and probability-based audit techniques. The expert's review found the sample size was insufficient to support statistically valid extrapolation at the claimed confidence level, supporting a substantial reduction in the recoupment claim.
09

Algorithmic Trading Model Dispute Over Backtested Projections.

An investment fund sued its quantitative trading model vendor after the model's probability-based signal generation systematically underperformed its backtested projections once deployed with live capital, resulting in significant trading losses. We identified experts with experience in quantitative trading model validation, probabilistic forecasting methodology, and financial time series analysis. The expert's model audit found the backtesting methodology had overstated the model's out-of-sample predictive reliability, anchoring damages for a recovery of nearly $30 million.
10

Fraud Detection Model Misrepresentation Over Performance Rates.

A bank sued its fraud detection software vendor after discovering the vendor's represented false-positive and false-negative rates for its transaction risk-scoring model were not supported by the vendor's own testing data, resulting in significant undetected fraud losses. We identified experts with experience in fraud detection modeling, statistical classifier performance evaluation, and probability-based risk scoring methodology. The expert's review of the vendor's testing data confirmed the represented performance rates were unsupported, supporting a substantial settlement.

Here are a few of our favorite Probability Expert Witnesses:

Connecticut Mathematics, Probability Expert #16200

I have 3 years of experience in the field of mathematics, with specific knowledge of calculus, analysis and complex analysis. I have published on such topics as function algebras and Riemann surfaces.

 

California Modeling, Probability Expert #20111

I have 40 years of experience and specialize in the fields of statistics and probability, with specific knowledge of model validity, data analysis and statistical inference. I have published on such topics as improving statistical methodologies, model-based and model-free inference, and geological and biological applications.

 

South Carolina Combinatorics, Probability Expert #21355

I have 12 years of experience, and specialize in the field of mathematics with specific knowledge in the areas of combinatorics, probability and computer science. I have published on such topics as algorithms, combinatorial regularity theory and number theory. I have testified on probability and statistics.

 

Kentucky Biostatistics, Probability Expert #23092

I have 31 years of experience and specialize in the field of biostatistics, with specific knowledge of data interpretation, computer analysis and mathematical analysis. I have published on such topics as the genetic basis of inflamatory bowel disease, mathematical models in genetics and mathematical models of gel electrophoresis.

 

Illinois Game Theory, Probability Expert #24839

I have 41 years of experience in the field of mathematics, with specific knowledge of game theory, probability and computer simulation. I have published on such topics as social choice theory, game theory and experimental mathematics.

 

Your Case Deserves The Best Probability Expert Witnesses

Registered icon

The right expert witnesses and consulting experts can make your case. That’s why we have spent so many hours over the past quarter century making sure our clients have just the right expert team — whether one expert or many, early-stage advice or expert reports and testimony. Across over 50,000 expert search assignments, we have honed a unique, customized approach to identifying, analyzing and connecting with expert talent so you can focus on winning your case.

LET US HELP YOU

South Carolina Probability, Mathematics Expert #25033

I have 37 years of experience, and specialize in the field of statistics with specific knowledge in the areas of mathematical statistics, nonparametric statistics and statistical process control. I have published on such topics as statistical testing, probability distributions and control charts (statistical process control). I have testified 6 times on topics such as Medicare and Medicaid overpayments, age discrimination and alleged copying on multiple choice exams. One age discrimination suit I worked on was in a setting that imposed side conditions so unusual that no standard test procedures existed to fit that situation at the time. This led to…

 

South Carolina Probability Expert #25197

I have 15 years of experience and specialize in the field of mathematics, with specific knowledge of analysis, probability and statistics. I have published on such topics as methods of feasible directions, optimization and probabilistic approach.

 

New York Statistics, Probability Expert #25710

I have 30 years of experience, and specialize in the field of mathematics with specific knowledge in the areas of applied mathematics, statistics and probability. I have published on such topics as statistics, combinatorics and mathematical biology.

 

Texas Markov Chains, Probability Expert #26949

I have 30 years of experience, and specialize in the field of probability and random processes with specific knowledge in the areas of predictions under uncertainty, testing data reliability, hypothesis testing based on empirical data and Monte Carlo simulation of possible scenarios. I have published on such topics as a research mathematician at a PhD granting department, with over 40 reseach articles and grant support to my credit and research presentations at numerous national and international symposia.

 

New York Mathematics, Probability Expert #29545

I have 14 years of experience, and specialize in the field of mathematics with specific knowledge in the areas of technology, history and teaching. I have published on such topics as technology, pedagogy and history.

 

Louisiana Data Analysis, Probability Expert #32091

I have 7 years of experience, and specialize in the field of statistics with specific knowledge in the areas of probability, data analysis and bioinformatics. I have published on such topics as probability, statistics and biological modeling. I have testified on probability, statistical analysis and sampling methods.

 

Virginia Probability Expert #33670

I have 27 years of experience and specialize in the fields of mathematics and statistics, with specific knowledge of logic and statistics. I have published on such topics as geometry and education.

 

Vermont Fourier, Wavelets, Probability Expert #34620

I have 27 years of experience, and specialize in the field of mathematics with specific knowledge in the areas of Fourier analysis, signal processing and operator theory. I have published on such topics as Littlewood-Paley theory, weighted norm inequalities and approximation theory.

 

Missouri Number Theory, Probability Expert #35033

I have 50 years of experience and specialize in the field of mathematics, with specific knowledge of number theory, mathematics education and probability. I have published on such topics as number theory, negative number bases and algebraic structures.

 

Connecticut Statistics, Probability, Design Expert #40524

I have 30 years of experience, and specialize in the field of statistics, with specific knowledge in the areas of statistical analysis and design of experiments, evaluation of probabilities and cryptography. I have published on such topics as quality control, statistical design, genetic density and development of cryptosystems. I have testified on jury discrimination and evaluation of voting result.

 

Pennsylvania Probability, Fatigue, Fracture Expert #41196

I have 30 years of experience, and specialize in the field of applied probability and statistics, with specific knowledge in the areas of statistical characterization of materials, statistical fatigue and fracture and mechanical reliability. I have published on such topics as aging aircraft, very high cycle fatigue and composites material reliability. I have testified on statistical sampling plans, statistical materials characterization and life cycle management.

 

Probability Expert #42275

I have 10 years of experience and specialize in the field of mathematics with specific knowledge in the areas of probability, discrete mathematics and combinatorics. I have published on such topics as random graphs, random permutations and random partitions of integers.

 

Washington D.C. Probability, Statistics Expert #43884

I have 28 years of experience, and specialize in the field of probability with specific knowledge in the areas of random structures and algorithms, statistics and computing. I have published on such topics as random trees, random graphs, string matching, urn models, sorting searchin. Published three professional books.

 

Iowa Probability, Estimation Expert #44060

I have 30 years of experience, and specialize in the field of probability and statistics with specific knowledge in the areas of probability, stochastic processes and estimation. I have published on such topics as random geometric graphs, auction theory and risk measures.

 

Put Our Probability Expert Network to Work for You

Registered icon

Our huge network of experts – eminent university professors and practitioners who have achieved renown as thought leaders in their fields – combined with unparalleled research capabilities puts the experts you need at your disposal when and where you need them.

If you’re a litigator or general counsel, we want to put this network to work for you and your clients. Let us know how we can help by calling us at (202) 908-4500 or filling out the form on this page. We’re so confident you’ll love what we do that unless you retain an expert we present there’s no charge!

LET US HELP YOU

Questions Attorneys Ask About Probability Expert Witnesses:

A probability expert typically becomes necessary in employment discrimination litigation requiring statistical analysis of hiring or pay disparities, antitrust and securities matters requiring probabilistic modeling of market behavior or damages, and disputes over whether patterns in data or transactions are more likely attributable to a systematic cause than to chance.
Search again

GET STARTED FINDING THE RIGHT EXPERT WITNESS

Spend your time working with your experts, not searching for them! We're here to de-stress the process of having a great expert witness team so that it’s easy to have the right experts every time. We'll conduct a quick but thorough search and deliver a roster of top candidates for you to review. There's no charge for the custom search — you pay only the hourly rate if you retain one of our experts.

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Or call 202-908-4500 or email us.

Related topics

Applied Mathematics
Biostatistics
Data Analysis
Game Theory
Genetics
Materials
Mathematics
Optimization
Statistics